Entries Tagged 'Barack Obama' ↓

Obama has wrapped up his impressive win, but the battle for second place is still in full swing. While the few delegates left will make no technical difference, the momentum gained or lost based on whether the candidate finishes second or third will be huge. If Edwards can hold off Clinton, it will be a large blow to her campaign, and will hurt her in New Hampshire (in addition to Obama being helped).

“Based on the real numbers as well as the entrance poll numbers”, with 79% of precincts reporting he has 35%, 4 points up on Clinton/Edwards, who are both at 31%. Wonder how big the bump will be in New Hampshire for Obama in the next couple days, I’m guessing 7 points.

(Then again, both of my predictions were wrong, so it definitely won’t be 7 points!)

Edwards - 42
Clinton - 33
Obama - 25

Of course the catch is that it’s only 2% of precincts-or around 35 out of 1784-are reporting. At least everyone voting is already at their caucus location, and won’t be influenced by incorrect early numbers.

They’re also reporting a lot of first-time caucus-goers, which they are touting as awesome for Obama, but doesn’t seem much higher than it normally is due to general turnover. Oh well, still very early.

NBC’s Chuck Todd has an interesting piece up looking at all the different possible outcomes for both parties in the Iowa caucuses, and what that will mean for each candidate.

Marc Ambinder reminds us that we shouldn’t “automatically assume that high turnout helps Barack Obama or assume that an increase in turnout comes from independents. Democrats, too, could caucus in record numbers, which helps the two candidates who are banking on them: Edwards and Clinton.”

This is an exciting time for those who have been following the action in Iowa. Of course, polls are notoriously unreliable in Iowa, but with how close they have consistently been for both parties, looks like tomorrow (today) will have some exciting returns.

On the Democratic side, I think Clinton is going to pull this one out. Obama is counting on huge turnout that probably isn’t going to come through in the end, while Clinton is depending on more devoted supporters almost guaranteed to caucus. This could go the other way if Edwards isn’t viable in a lot of precincts, but with his recent surge that is less likely than it was a month ago. My call: Clinton by 3.

Across the aisle, I’m going with Romney. Voters have become more and more disenchanted with Huckabee since his rise from the cellar topped out a week ago. His snub of voters tonight to go be on Leno (and cross a picket line to do so!) will alienate others from coming to him on the final day. Nobody else has much of a chance, so I think Romney’s machine will end up topping Huckabee’s passion. Romney surprises by coming through with a 4 point margin, and Fred Thompson gets only 7% and drops out soon after.

Updated at caucus time: Check out this post for the top tracking sites out there.