A couple of quotes that piqued my interest while I was watching:
“They said this day would never come. They said our sights were set to high. They set this country was too divided, too disillusioned, to come together around a common purpose.”
“Years from now you’ll look back and say this is the moment, this is the place, where America remembered what it means to hope.”
He ended with what sounded like a quote from his 2004 Convention keynote, referencing red states, blue states, and them coming together to be the United States. Overall heavy on the inspiration and broad statements, not policy distinctions. Not too different from Edwards’ speech, either.
With only 1% of the vote, Joe Biden did nothing to surpass expectations and, according to a campaign e-mail to MSNBC’s First Read, will soon drop out of the race. In the run-up to the caucuses, there was a lot of talk about how large and fervent his crowds were getting, but no results of that have shown up. No word as to who he will endorse.
Following rumors earlier that Chris Dodd would drop out if he placed far down the democratic line-up, he did so and has said he will drop out. No word yet on who he is going to endorse, nor that it really matters at all.
Obama has wrapped up his impressive win, but the battle for second place is still in full swing. While the few delegates left will make no technical difference, the momentum gained or lost based on whether the candidate finishes second or third will be huge. If Edwards can hold off Clinton, it will be a large blow to her campaign, and will hurt her in New Hampshire (in addition to Obama being helped).
“Based on the real numbers as well as the entrance poll numbers”, with 79% of precincts reporting he has 35%, 4 points up on Clinton/Edwards, who are both at 31%. Wonder how big the bump will be in New Hampshire for Obama in the next couple days, I’m guessing 7 points.
(Then again, both of my predictions were wrong, so it definitely won’t be 7 points!)
With only 40% of precincts reporting on the Republican side, McCain is already on CNN giving a “surpassed expectations” speech. Hoping to get in early and make his point to the media, so his third/fourth/fifth place finish gets coverage as a win for him. MSNBC said earlier that 15% and up means a huge win for McCain in Iowa, right now he’s hovering at around 12%, so he might not get there.
Only 15% of precincts reporting at this time, but with Huckabee 13 points up on Romney, CNN declared Huckabee the winner. First of my predictions is down, if this holds up.
Of course the catch is that it’s only 2% of precincts-or around 35 out of 1784-are reporting. At least everyone voting is already at their caucus location, and won’t be influenced by incorrect early numbers.
They’re also reporting a lot of first-time caucus-goers, which they are touting as awesome for Obama, but doesn’t seem much higher than it normally is due to general turnover. Oh well, still very early.
NBC’s Chuck Todd has an interesting piece up looking at all the different possible outcomes for both parties in the Iowa caucuses, and what that will mean for each candidate.
Marc Ambinder reminds us that we shouldn’t “automatically assume that high turnout helps Barack Obama or assume that an increase in turnout comes from independents. Democrats, too, could caucus in record numbers, which helps the two candidates who are banking on them: Edwards and Clinton.”
