New New Hampshire Primary Polls

This Suffolk poll is starting to get play in the media. It’s a useless poll at this point in the game, as it was taken before the Iowa Caucuses. The dump and dips for the winners and losers (hopefully respectively) aren’t taken into account, so it’s pretty misleading data.

This newer Suffolk poll gives Obama a 5 point swing from the last one, but still has a fatal flaw. It straddles the Iowa caucuses, so half the data it’s using is irrelevant.

Rasmussen’s is the first poll taken completely after the Iowa caucuses and shows the first true numbers being taken from New Hampshire. It has Obama up by 10 over Clinton. American Research Group’s is also out now, and was taken solely after Iowa. They give a 12 point lead to Obama. I haven’t had a chance to look through the make-up of the polled constituencies of each of these, but with them coming out so close to each other they are probably at least somewhat accurate. In the most extreme scenario this means a 24 point swing for Obama, from 12 down to 12 up on Clinton. That’s what I call a bump!

The Concord Monitor has Obama up by a point, which is the same as their Dec 14th poll. CNN/WMUR’s has it all tied up between Obama and Clinton, both with 33%. In their end of December poll, Clinton was up by 4.

On the Republican side, things are less interesting. By almost all accounts, McCain is still in the lead, with Romney having dropped off somewhat. Huckabee looks to have gained a couple points, but nothing that should cause McCain or Romney to lose any sleep.

In light of this polling data, I’m sure Clinton’s camp will be contemplating going very negative in the debate tonight, doing anything to throw off Obama’s momentum. If he exits New Hampshire with a win, especially a convincing one like the current polls, no one will be able to stop him.

Politico also has a piece worth reading up about why none of these polls should have too much trust placed in them. Here’s to waiting for Tuesday night.