Latest Polling for the New Hampshire Primaries, Predictions

With only 9 hours to go until the first polling places in New Hampshire open, the leaders in both the Democratic and Republican races are beginning to pull away.

Obama has been siphoning votes off of Clinton since he won Iowa, but has been leaving Edwards’ voters pretty much alone. While this is a good thing for Edwards, it won’t have too much impact tomorrow, as he is going to get third place unless something changes dramatically overnight. Clinton has a small shot at reversing her slide, but I don’t think it will happen. Her crying today might help the thought that she’s cold and calculating, but it’s likely too little too late. Combine that with an alienation of some voters who no longer see her as strong enough to be President, and it won’t have much effect on anything. Obama has just been riding his “wave” (his words) and making sure not to mess up. His debate performance succeeded in that, and he will win the primary because of it. My predictions:

Obama: 38%
Clinton: 31%
Edwards: 24%

Romney’s attempt to paint McCain as the Washington insider isn’t going to work for him in New Hampshire. The voters just know him too well for it to have an impact. This is where his campaigning there in 2000 is helping him solidify support and prevent any last minute slide to Romney. Huckabee won’t see any ending fireworks like he did in Iowa. New Hampshire’s conscious rejection of the uber-religious hurts him, and third place is about the best he can hope for. If Romney does lose, it’s going to be hard to turn around a campaign that the media is going to paint as a two-man race between McCain and Huckabee. This also hurts Giuliani, as he will be getting more ignored by the media than he has been (especially if he loses to Ron Paul again). Predictions:

McCain: 32
Romney: 27
Huckabee: 13
Paul: 10
Giuliani: 9
Thompson: 9