Only 15% of precincts reporting at this time, but with Huckabee 13 points up on Romney, CNN declared Huckabee the winner. First of my predictions is down, if this holds up.
7:57 PM in Iowa… CNN calls it for Huckabee
January 3rd, 2008 at 5:57 pm — Election 2008, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans
Caucus Tracking Links
January 3rd, 2008 at 5:55 pm — Election 2008
Politico has a pleasing yet simple display of AP’s numbers set up on their homepage with an automatically updating piece of flash.
CNN has a much more detailed interface up, including delegate counts. MSNBC is similar to the CNN set-up.
Happy caucus watching to you.
CNN’s First Democratic Numbers
January 3rd, 2008 at 5:32 pm — Barack Obama, Democrats, Election 2008, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards
Edwards - 42
Clinton - 33
Obama - 25
Of course the catch is that it’s only 2% of precincts-or around 35 out of 1784-are reporting. At least everyone voting is already at their caucus location, and won’t be influenced by incorrect early numbers.
They’re also reporting a lot of first-time caucus-goers, which they are touting as awesome for Obama, but doesn’t seem much higher than it normally is due to general turnover. Oh well, still very early.
Pre-Post-Caucus Spin, Turnout Predictions
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:16 pm — Barack Obama, Democrats, Election 2008, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Republicans
NBC’s Chuck Todd has an interesting piece up looking at all the different possible outcomes for both parties in the Iowa caucuses, and what that will mean for each candidate.
Marc Ambinder reminds us that we shouldn’t “automatically assume that high turnout helps Barack Obama or assume that an increase in turnout comes from independents. Democrats, too, could caucus in record numbers, which helps the two candidates who are banking on them: Edwards and Clinton.”
Ads: Giuliani Goes Daisy, Romney Uses Commoners
January 3rd, 2008 at 12:19 pm — Election 2008, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Rudy Giuliani
Rudy Giuliani’s “Ready”
Politics of fear executed pretty well. I guess he’s counting on viewers lumping everyone into a group of terrorists, making them feel scared. Of course, it also brings up 9/11 for pretty much everyone, which is one of Giuliani’s consistent goals. It’s fear mongering that is reminiscent of Bush’s campaigns.
Mitt Romney’s “Remember”
Probably will have more of an impact than Giuliani’s in New Hampshire (where both are airing). Acts nice in going negative on McCain.
Iowa Caucasus in 17 Hours
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:00 am — Barack Obama, Democrats, Election 2008, Fred Thompson, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans
This is an exciting time for those who have been following the action in Iowa. Of course, polls are notoriously unreliable in Iowa, but with how close they have consistently been for both parties, looks like tomorrow (today) will have some exciting returns.
On the Democratic side, I think Clinton is going to pull this one out. Obama is counting on huge turnout that probably isn’t going to come through in the end, while Clinton is depending on more devoted supporters almost guaranteed to caucus. This could go the other way if Edwards isn’t viable in a lot of precincts, but with his recent surge that is less likely than it was a month ago. My call: Clinton by 3.
Across the aisle, I’m going with Romney. Voters have become more and more disenchanted with Huckabee since his rise from the cellar topped out a week ago. His snub of voters tonight to go be on Leno (and cross a picket line to do so!) will alienate others from coming to him on the final day. Nobody else has much of a chance, so I think Romney’s machine will end up topping Huckabee’s passion. Romney surprises by coming through with a 4 point margin, and Fred Thompson gets only 7% and drops out soon after.
Updated at caucus time: Check out this post for the top tracking sites out there.